Investment Thesis

Strong — all assumptions holding Maintaining — minor concerns, thesis intact Weak — key assumptions under pressure Broken — critical assumption invalidated
Status STRONG
Conviction 80 / 100
Time Horizon 3-5 years
Over a 3-5 year horizon, Zscaler will continue its market leadership and deliver substantial revenue growth and expanding profitability due to its differentiated cloud-native Zero Trust platform and the secular tailwinds of digital transformation and AI security.

Conviction History

Assumptions

Holding — assumption intact At Risk — evidence weakening Broken — assumption invalidated Critical — if broken, thesis fails
#1 CRITICAL HOLDING 100

Revenue growth will remain robust, averaging 25-30% annually, driven by continued market adoption of Zero Trust architectures, expansion into AI security use cases, and increasing penetration within its existing customer base.

GROWTH 70% VOLUME 30%
#2 HOLDING 70

Gross margins will remain strong, stabilizing between 77-79%, as economies of scale in its cloud infrastructure continue to offset increased data center CapEx for AI and ongoing R&D investments.

COGS 70% CAPEX 30%
#3 HOLDING 76

Zscaler will maintain pricing power, achieving average selling price (ASP) growth of at least 3% annually, supported by its integrated platform, high switching costs, and the essential nature of its security services.

PRICING 100%
#4 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

The company will maintain a net cash position, with debt levels remaining negligible relative to its substantial cash reserves and operating cash flow generation, ensuring financial flexibility.

DEBT 100%
#5 HOLDING 96

Customer retention will remain above 95%, and the company will add at least 1,000 new enterprise customers annually, driven by platform stickiness and the increasing sophistication of cyber threats.

GROWTH 40% VOLUME 60%
#6 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

No significant governance failures, regulatory shutdowns, or delisting events will occur, allowing Zscaler to continue operating under standard NASDAQ listing requirements.

GOING_CONCERN 100%

Recent Developments

Structural Tactical
GROWTH TACTICAL Feb 21, 2026

Zscaler's Z-Flex Adoption Surges: Will It Be a New Growth Engine? - Nasdaq

Z-Flex program achieved $175M in TCV bookings in Q1 FY2026, a 70% sequential increase, facilitating larger multi-year enterprise deals.

GROWTH TACTICAL Feb 20, 2026

Zscaler Bets On AI Security Suite As Enterprise Risks Mount - Yahoo Finance

AI Security ARR reached $400M FY2026 target three quarters early; platform now processes 1 trillion annual AI/ML transactions.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 19, 2026

Zscaler, together with Bharti Airtel, announce launch of AI & cyber threat research center - marketscreener.com

Zscaler partnered with Bharti Airtel to launch an AI and cyber threat research center in India to study AI-driven attacks.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 14, 2026

Your Encryption Is Already Outdated. A $6.15 Trillion Fix Is Underway - GlobeNewswire

CISA issued procurement guidance requiring post-quantum cryptography (PQC) for federal agencies, positioning Zscaler as a primary beneficiary of mandatory security migrations.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 12, 2026

Down 18% In Last 12 Months, Can Zscaler Stock Deliver Strong Returns in 2026? - TIKR.com

AI Security ARR grew 80% YoY, hitting the $400M FY2026 target three quarters early; company now operates at a Rule of 78.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 11, 2026

Zscaler Finds Enterprises Unprepared For AI-Driven Cyber Threats - SMEStreet

Zscaler ThreatLabz 2026 report confirms AI/ML transactions on the platform reached nearly 1 trillion annually, with 309% YoY growth in India, validating the platform's role in securing autonomous AI traffic.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 10, 2026

AI fear grips Wall Street as a new stock market reality sets in - Communications Today

Zscaler acquired SquareX to integrate browser-native threat protection into its Zero Trust Exchange, targeting unmanaged devices and AI workflows.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 08, 2026

Key deals this week: Zscaler, Eldorado Gold, Henkel and more (ZS:NASDAQ) - Seeking Alpha

Zscaler acquired SquareX to integrate browser-based security into its Zero Trust Exchange. The move targets the browser as a primary attack vector in the AI era, allowing for lightweight security extensions that bypass traditional traffic backhauling. This strengthens the platform's technological moat and addresses evolving enterprise AI security requirements.

Investor Documents