Investment Thesis

Strong — all assumptions holding Maintaining — minor concerns, thesis intact Weak — key assumptions under pressure Broken — critical assumption invalidated
Status STRONG
Conviction 74 / 100
Time Horizon 3-5 years
Over a 3-5 year horizon, Time Technoplast Ltd will achieve sustained revenue growth and margin expansion, driven by its strategic shift to value-added products and leverage of its dominant market position.

Conviction History

Assumptions

Holding — assumption intact At Risk — evidence weakening Broken — assumption invalidated Critical — if broken, thesis fails
#1 CRITICAL HOLDING 82

Time Technoplast's value-added product (VAP) revenue will grow at 15%+ annually, expanding blended EBITDA margins to over 15% by FY27E, supported by higher pricing power in composite cylinders and IBCs.

GROWTH 60% PRICING 40%
#2 HOLDING 60

Effective management of polymer input costs will maintain COGS as a percentage of revenue below 85% through FY27E, supporting margin targets despite crude oil price volatility.

COGS 70% PRICING 30%
#3 HOLDING 87

Consolidated revenue growth will be supported by volume increases across industrial packaging and infrastructure segments, reaching 10%+ annually through FY27E, driven by industrial production and 'Make in India' initiatives.

GROWTH 30% VOLUME 70%
#4 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

Debt/EBITDA ratio will decline to below 2.0x by FY26, as asset sales and improved operating cash flow are utilized for debt reduction.

DEBT 100%
#5 HOLDING 70

Capital expenditure will remain focused on VAP capacity expansion and recycling initiatives, with CAPEX as a percentage of revenue not exceeding 7% annually through FY27E, avoiding past aggressive expansion issues.

CAPEX 100%
#6 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

No material adverse regulatory changes or product approval issues (e.g., PESO) will arise, allowing for continued market access for composite cylinders and other key products.

GOING_CONCERN 100%

Recent Developments

Structural Tactical
VOLUME TACTICAL Feb 21, 2026

Intermediate Bulk Container (IBC) Market Forecast 2026-2036: Market to Reach USD 9.5 Billion by 2036 at 6.8% CAGR - ACCESS Newswire

Crude Oil (WTI) prices surged 16.6% over 30 days to $65.26/bbl, significantly increasing feedstock costs for polymer-based industrial packaging.

GROWTH TACTICAL Feb 15, 2026

Time Technoplast Ltd Secures ₹2.30 Crore Trial Order for Hydrogen Storage Systems from PSU - scanx.trade

Time Technoplast secured its first trial order of ₹2.30 crore for Type IV Composite Hydrogen Storage Systems for the Indian Armed Forces.

PRICING TACTICAL Feb 13, 2026

[NSE] - Outcome of Board Meeting

Q3 FY26 revenue grew 12.7% YoY to ₹1,564 cr with EBITDA margins hitting 15.2%, driven by a 15% growth in Value-Added Products.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 11, 2026

US-India trade deal reduced plastics sector tariffs from 50% to 18%, restoring competitiveness for Indian exports.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 10, 2026

With EPS Growth And More, Time Technoplast (NSE:TIMETECHNO) Makes An Interesting Case - simplywall.st

US-India trade deal reduced plastics sector tariffs from 50% to 18%, restoring competitiveness for Indian exports.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 09, 2026

US-India trade deal reduced plastics sector tariffs from 50% to 18%, significantly lowering export costs for Indian manufacturers.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 08, 2026

US-India trade negotiations resulted in a 32-percentage-point reduction in tariffs for the plastics sector, lowering cumulative duties from 50% to 18%. This restores the competitiveness of Indian plastic exports against regional rivals in the American market, directly impacting one-third of India's total exports to the US.

Investor Documents