Investment Thesis

Strong — all assumptions holding Maintaining — minor concerns, thesis intact Weak — key assumptions under pressure Broken — critical assumption invalidated
Status STRONG
Conviction 70 / 100
Time Horizon 3-5 years
Over a 3-5 year horizon, Ratnaveer Precision Engineering Ltd will achieve sustained revenue growth and margin expansion driven by its strategic domestic capacity expansion, successful integration of potential European acquisitions, and benefits from backward integration.

Assumptions

Holding — assumption intact At Risk — evidence weakening Broken — assumption invalidated Critical — if broken, thesis fails
#1 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

Revenue will grow at a CAGR of at least 15% over the next 3-5 years, driven by successful execution of domestic capacity expansion and integration of potential European acquisitions.

CAPEX 30% GROWTH 70%
#2 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

EBITDA margins will improve to an average of 10-12% over the next 3 years, driven by operational efficiencies from backward integration and an improving product mix, effectively managing input cost volatility.

COGS 50% PRICING 50%
#3 HOLDING 70

Sales volume for finishing sheets and washers will grow by 8-10% annually, supported by sustained demand in key end-markets like automotive, construction, and renewable energy.

VOLUME 100%
#4 HOLDING 70

Debt-to-EBITDA will remain below 1.5x through the planned expansion, demonstrating continued strong debt servicing capacity.

DEBT 100%
#5 HOLDING 70

Operating Cash Flow will turn positive and remain sustainable, with inventory days normalizing from FY23 levels due to improved working capital management and efficient raw material utilization.

INVENTORY 100%
#6 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

No material governance issues or significant negative impact from customer concentration (top 10 clients accounting for <50% of revenue) will materialize.

GOING_CONCERN 100%

Investor Documents