Investment Thesis

Strong — all assumptions holding Maintaining — minor concerns, thesis intact Weak — key assumptions under pressure Broken — critical assumption invalidated
Status STRONG
Conviction 74 / 100
Time Horizon 3-5 years
Over a 3-5 year horizon, Lumax Auto Technologies will deliver sustained revenue and profit growth driven by its expanding product portfolio, increasing contribution from the high-margin Passenger Vehicle segment, and strategic focus on EV-agnostic components, supported by strong OEM relationships and global technology partnerships.

Conviction History

Assumptions

Holding — assumption intact At Risk — evidence weakening Broken — assumption invalidated Critical — if broken, thesis fails
#1 CRITICAL HOLDING 84

Revenue will grow at or above the guided 20-25% CAGR for FY26, fueled by increasing PV segment contribution (targeting 50% of revenue) and a 40% EV-related order book.

GROWTH 70% VOLUME 30%
#2 HOLDING 76

EBITDA margins will be maintained between 13.5%-15% due to the increasing revenue share from higher-margin PV components and effective pass-through of raw material costs, despite sensitivity to plastics and metals.

COGS 50% PRICING 50%
#3 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

Net Debt/EBITDA will remain below 1.0x, supported by strong operating cash flow generation and utilizing IACI's cash flow for debt repayment, indicating continued moderate leverage.

DEBT 100%
#4 HOLDING 70

The company will maintain efficient inventory management, with inventory days remaining stable or improving, consistent with its ability to manage macro shocks and revenue growth.

INVENTORY 100%
#5 HOLDING 70

Capital expenditure will remain moderate, capped at 5-7% of revenue, primarily funded through internal accruals, supporting capacity for EV-agnostic products without excessive debt.

CAPEX 100%
#6 CRITICAL HOLDING 74

No material governance failures, fraud allegations, or existential regulatory shutdowns will occur, given the company's established D.K. Jain Group backing and history of shareholder approvals for related-party transactions.

GOING_CONCERN 100%

Recent Developments

Structural Tactical
COGS STRUCTURAL Feb 20, 2026

[NSE] - General Updates

NCLT sanctioned the amalgamation of Lumax Ancillary Limited into Lumax Auto Technologies, consolidating the auxiliary lighting business into the parent entity.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 19, 2026

[NSE] - Amalgamation/Merger

The National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) sanctioned the Scheme of Arrangement for the amalgamation of Lumax Ancillary Limited into Lumax Auto Technologies Limited.

GROWTH TACTICAL Feb 18, 2026

Lumax Auto Technologies Limited Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next - simplywall.st

Management raised FY26 revenue growth guidance to 30% from 25% following 40% YoY revenue growth in Q3FY26.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 13, 2026

[NSE] - Press Release

Q3FY26 revenue grew 40% and PAT 93% YoY, driven by IACI integration and Greenfuel scaling. NCLT approved Greenfuel merger with Lumax Resources.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 11, 2026

Lumax Auto Technologies acquired the remaining stake in Lumax Ancillary to achieve 100% ownership, consolidating its auxiliary lighting business.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 10, 2026

Future Prospects: Key Trends Shaping the Automotive Auxiliary Lamps Market Until 2030 - openPR.com

Lumax Auto Technologies acquired 100% ownership of Lumax Ancillary to consolidate its position in the automotive auxiliary lamps market.

Investor Documents