Investment Thesis

Strong — all assumptions holding Maintaining — minor concerns, thesis intact Weak — key assumptions under pressure Broken — critical assumption invalidated
Status STRONG
Conviction 75 / 100
Time Horizon 3-5 years
Over a 3-5 year horizon, L&T Finance Ltd will achieve sustained profitable growth driven by its retailisation strategy and technological enhancements, leading to improved asset quality and return metrics.

Assumptions

Holding — assumption intact At Risk — evidence weakening Broken — assumption invalidated Critical — if broken, thesis fails
#1 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

L&T Finance Ltd will achieve its target of NIM + fees at 10-10.5% in FY26 by effectively managing its diversified loan book and leveraging technology to control funding costs.

COGS 60% PRICING 40%
#2 CRITICAL HOLDING 79

Loan disbursement volume will grow by at least 15% YoY in FY26, with a stronger rebound in rural/MFI segments in H2 FY26, driven by improving rural incomes and continued urban demand.

GROWTH 30% VOLUME 70%
#3 HOLDING 70

Asset quality will improve, with GNPA falling below 3.0% by FY26, supported by the strategic shift to prime segments and technology-driven underwriting (Project Cyclops).

VOLUME 50% INVENTORY 50%
#4 HOLDING 70

Consolidated RoA will reach management's target of 2.8-3.0% by FY26, reflecting improved NIMs and controlled credit costs.

PRICING 40% INVENTORY 60%
#5 CRITICAL HOLDING 84

The company will maintain its 'AAA' credit rating, enabling continued access to diversified funding at competitive rates, with total debt remaining manageable relative to equity.

DEBT 100%

Recent Developments

Structural Tactical
GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 14, 2026

L&T Finance Ltd. Scales Gold Loan Footprint to Over 260 Branches - TheWire.in

L&T Finance doubled its Gold Loan branch network to 260+ locations within eight months of business entry, targeting high-yield secured retail growth.

DEBT TACTICAL Feb 13, 2026

Flipkart eyes food wars; Borrowing costs ease fintechs - The Economic Times

Borrowing costs for high-rated NBFCs eased by 50bps, counteracting previous management guidance of a 30-35bps increase for FY25.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 12, 2026

BHEL's OFS, United Breweries' margin surge in Q3, US yields fall, MSCI Rejig and more - LinkedIn

L&T Finance included in MSCI Global Standard Index, expected to drive significant passive institutional inflows.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 11, 2026

MSCI February Rejig: IRCTC Out, AB Capital And L&T Finance In; Check Expected Inflows - NDTV Profit

L&T Finance included in MSCI Index, expected to drive significant passive fund inflows and institutional liquidity.

DEBT TACTICAL Feb 10, 2026

RBI MPC Meeting 2026 Highlights: Repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, says RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra; inflation seen at 2.1% in FY 2025-26 - Times of India

RBI maintained repo rate at 5.25% with 2.1% inflation forecast, stabilizing borrowing costs for NBFCs.

Investor Documents