Investment Thesis

Strong — all assumptions holding Maintaining — minor concerns, thesis intact Weak — key assumptions under pressure Broken — critical assumption invalidated
Status STRONG
Conviction 73 / 100
Time Horizon 12-18 months
Over a 12-18 month horizon, GE Vernova T&D India Ltd will deliver robust financial outperformance, driven by sustained government infrastructure spending on power transmission and increasing integration of renewable energy sources.

Conviction History

Assumptions

Holding — assumption intact At Risk — evidence weakening Broken — assumption invalidated Critical — if broken, thesis fails
#1 CRITICAL HOLDING 84

Revenue growth will exceed 15% year-on-year, fueled by consistent order inflows from government tenders for grid expansion, modernization, and renewable energy evacuation projects.

GROWTH 40% VOLUME 60%
#2 HOLDING 70

Gross margins will be sustained above 28%, supported by strong pricing power for ultra-high voltage equipment and effective management of key input costs like copper and aluminum.

COGS 50% PRICING 50%
#3 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

The company will maintain its near debt-free status, with its Debt-to-Equity ratio remaining below 2% through disciplined financial management.

DEBT 100%
#4 HOLDING 70

Capital expenditures will increase by 10-15% over the next 18 months to expand manufacturing capacity for transformers and switchgear, supporting future order fulfillment.

CAPEX 70% GROWTH 30%
#5 HOLDING 70

Debtor days will be managed below 130 days, indicating continued efficiency in working capital management and strong cash conversion.

INVENTORY 100%
#6 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

No significant governance failures, regulatory breaches, or existential threats that could impact the company's operations or market standing will emerge.

GOING_CONCERN 100%

Recent Developments

Structural Tactical
VOLUME TACTICAL Feb 16, 2026

GE Vernova T&D India's share price spiked over 11% post HVDC contract - MSN

GE Vernova T&D India secured a major HVDC contract, leading to an 11% share price spike and significantly boosting its high-voltage order book.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 12, 2026

US-India interim trade deal removes 25% additional tariff on T&D equipment exports, enhancing global competitiveness.

VOLUME STRUCTURAL Feb 11, 2026

GE Vernova T&D India - Explosive Growth: 10 large-cap stocks with stellar YoY sales gains - The Economic Times

US-India interim trade deal removes 25% additional tariff on exports, enhancing global competitiveness for T&D equipment.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 10, 2026

Copper price spikes are slowing order closure rates while competitor Voltamp is adding 6,000 MVA of EHV capacity by June 2026, threatening margins and volume growth.

CAPEX STRUCTURAL Feb 08, 2026

Voltamp targets to commission greenfield transformer plant by June 2026 - T&D India

Sharp increases in copper prices have begun slowing order closure rates across the transformer sector, threatening near-term volume growth and margin stability. Simultaneously, competitor Voltamp is commissioning a 6,000 MVA greenfield plant for 220kV transformers by June 2026, increasing regional capacity and potential pricing pressure in the EHV segment.

Investor Documents