Investment Thesis

Strong — all assumptions holding Maintaining — minor concerns, thesis intact Weak — key assumptions under pressure Broken — critical assumption invalidated
Status STRONG
Conviction 70 / 100
Time Horizon 3-5 years
Over a 3-5 year horizon, Esab India Ltd will deliver robust revenue growth and margin expansion, increasing shareholder value due to its leading market position, strong competitive moat, and tailwinds from India's industrialization and infrastructure development.

Assumptions

Holding — assumption intact At Risk — evidence weakening Broken — assumption invalidated Critical — if broken, thesis fails
#1 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

Revenue will grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of at least 10% over the next 3-5 years, driven by increased government infrastructure spending and the 'Make in India' initiative boosting industrial demand.

GROWTH 40% VOLUME 60%
#2 HOLDING 70

EBITDA margins will expand from 25.2% in FY25 to over 27% by FY28, leveraging pricing power derived from brand strength and technological access, and effective cost management.

COGS 30% PRICING 70%
#3 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

The company will maintain a debt-free or near debt-free balance sheet, with Debt/EBITDA remaining below 0.5x, reflecting its strong financial health and operational cash flow generation.

DEBT 100%
#4 HOLDING 70

Export revenue will grow by at least 15% annually, contributing positively to overall growth and providing a partial hedge against INR depreciation.

GROWTH 50% VOLUME 50%
#5 HOLDING 70

Capital expenditures will be strategically deployed into R&D and automation, leading to the launch of at least 2 new product lines annually which will contribute to at least 5% of incremental revenue growth by FY28.

CAPEX 50% GROWTH 50%
#6 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

No material governance issues or going concern risks will emerge, ensuring continued stakeholder confidence and operational stability, supported by the parent company's financial health.

GOING_CONCERN 100%

Recent Developments

Structural Tactical
GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 13, 2026

US-India trade deal removes 25% tariffs on steel/aluminum; Parent acquisition of Eddyfi adds NDT capabilities to India distribution network.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 11, 2026

US-India interim trade deal removes 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, significantly lowering export barriers for welding consumables.

GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 08, 2026

ESAB Acquisition Of Eddyfi Expands Workflow Reach And Valuation Debate - simplywall.st

Parent company ESAB Corporation acquired Eddyfi Technologies, expanding the portfolio into non-destructive testing and monitoring. This move broadens the industrial workflow reach beyond welding and cutting, introducing recurring service elements and high-margin inspection technologies that can be leveraged across Esab India's extensive distribution network.

Investor Documents