Investment Thesis

Strong — all assumptions holding Maintaining — minor concerns, thesis intact Weak — key assumptions under pressure Broken — critical assumption invalidated
Status STRONG
Conviction 67 / 100
Time Horizon 3-5 years
Over a 3-5 year horizon, Central Depository Services (India) Ltd (CDSL) will maintain its market leadership and achieve robust profit growth because of India's secular capital market expansion and CDSL's established network effects and operational efficiency.

Conviction History

Assumptions

Holding — assumption intact At Risk — evidence weakening Broken — assumption invalidated Critical — if broken, thesis fails
#1 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

CDSL will add over 15 million new demat accounts annually over the next 3-5 years, driven by increasing financial literacy and digital India initiatives.

GROWTH 40% VOLUME 60%
#2 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

CDSL will maintain EBITDA margins above 55% over the next 3-5 years, despite moderate inflation in employee and IT costs, due to its fixed cost structure and operating leverage.

COGS 60% PRICING 40%
#3 HOLDING 70

CDSL's capital expenditure will remain below 5% of revenue annually over the next 3-5 years, enabling continued strong free cash flow generation.

CAPEX 70% INVENTORY 30%
#4 HOLDING 70

CDSL will maintain its debt-to-equity ratio below 0.5% over the next 3-5 years, utilizing strong free cash flow for dividends and reinvestment.

DEBT 100%
#5 HOLDING 54

No significant regulatory changes or market-wide disruptions (e.g., major cybersecurity breach) will negatively impact CDSL's operations or require substantial unbudgeted capital/compliance expenditure.

GOING_CONCERN 100%

Recent Developments

Structural Tactical
GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 21, 2026

Sebi's NAV upload mandate for alternative funds inevitable demat cleanup: Industry experts - Moneycontrol

SEBI mandated dematerialization and NAV uploads for Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs), expanding the regulatory scope for depositories.

GOING_CONCERN TACTICAL Feb 15, 2026

[NSE] - Pendency of Litigation(s)/dispute(s) or the outcome impacting the Company

CDSL filed an appeal after the Bombay High Court set aside a favorable arbitral award, marking a material escalation in ongoing litigation.

Investor Documents