Investment Thesis

Strong — all assumptions holding Maintaining — minor concerns, thesis intact Weak — key assumptions under pressure Broken — critical assumption invalidated
Status STRONG
Conviction 70 / 100
Time Horizon 3-5 years
Over a 3-5 year horizon, Computer Age Management Services Ltd (CAMS) will achieve sustained revenue and profit growth driven by India's increasing financialization of savings, its dominant market position in mutual fund administration, and successful diversification into adjacent financial services.

Assumptions

Holding — assumption intact At Risk — evidence weakening Broken — assumption invalidated Critical — if broken, thesis fails
#1 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

Mutual Fund Assets Under Administration (AUA) serviced by CAMS will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15-20% over the next 3-5 years, supported by India's financialization of savings and rising GDP growth.

GROWTH 30% VOLUME 70%
#2 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

CAMS will maintain its EBITDA margin above 45% over the next 3-5 years, driven by its dominant scale, pricing power on core RTA services, and operational efficiencies.

COGS 30% PRICING 70%
#3 HOLDING 70

Revenue from non-mutual fund segments (AIF, insurance, CAMSPay) will grow at a CAGR exceeding 25% over the next 3-5 years, contributing at least 20% of total revenue by FY28.

GROWTH 60% VOLUME 40%
#4 HOLDING 70

CAMS will maintain a debt-free balance sheet (Net Debt to Equity ratio of 0) over the next 3-5 years, utilizing strong operating cash flows for CAPEX and dividends.

DEBT 70% CAPEX 30%
#5 HOLDING 70

No adverse SEBI regulatory changes that fundamentally alter the RTA business model or impose significant unbudgeted costs will materialize over the forecast period.

GOING_CONCERN 100%

Investor Documents