Investment Thesis

Strong — all assumptions holding Maintaining — minor concerns, thesis intact Weak — key assumptions under pressure Broken — critical assumption invalidated
Status STRONG
Conviction 73 / 100
Time Horizon 3-5 years
Over a 3-5 year horizon, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (BAM) will achieve substantial growth in distributable earnings and shareholder value driven by its leading scale in alternative assets, resilient fee-based revenue model, and strategic positioning in secular growth trends.

Conviction History

Assumptions

Holding — assumption intact At Risk — evidence weakening Broken — assumption invalidated Critical — if broken, thesis fails
#1 CRITICAL HOLDING 80

Assets Under Management (AUM) will grow at a compounded annual rate of 10%+ driven by secular demand for alternatives, AI infrastructure, and decarbonization investments, leading to Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) growth exceeding 15% annually.

GROWTH 70% VOLUME 30%
#2 HOLDING 70

Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) margins will be sustained above 60% through operating leverage and effective cost management, complemented by increasing contributions from performance fees as assets mature.

COGS 40% PRICING 60%
#3 HOLDING 70

Financial leverage, measured as Debt/Distributable Earnings, will remain conservatively managed below 2.5x, preserving financial flexibility for growth initiatives and shareholder returns.

DEBT 100%
#4 HOLDING 70

Capital expenditures will remain a low percentage of distributable earnings, primarily directed towards technology and operational infrastructure to support the asset-light model, thereby not hindering shareholder returns.

CAPEX 100%
#5 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

No material governance failures, regulatory shutdowns, or significant management departures will occur, maintaining investor confidence and operational stability.

GOING_CONCERN 100%

Recent Developments

Structural Tactical
GROWTH TACTICAL Feb 17, 2026

Brookfield, GIC Seek $2B for National Storage REIT Buy and More APAC Real Estate Headlines - Mingtiandi

Brookfield Asset Management is organizing $1.96 billion in financing for the acquisition of Australia's National Storage REIT and has proposed a $21.00 per share cash acquisition of Peakstone Realty Trust.

GOING_CONCERN STRUCTURAL Feb 10, 2026

Inside Biotech: Healthscope’s long, troubled journey to a not-for-profit rescue - Proactive Investors

Healthscope defaulted on $1.6B debt, triggering receivership and a transition of 31 hospitals to a not-for-profit structure, ending the traditional fee-earning model for these assets.

Investor Documents