Investment Thesis

Strong — all assumptions holding Maintaining — minor concerns, thesis intact Weak — key assumptions under pressure Broken — critical assumption invalidated
Status STRONG
Conviction 70 / 100
Time Horizon 3-5 years
Over a 3-5 year horizon, Addictive Learning Technology will achieve sustainable, profitable growth driven by its specialized EdTech offerings and expansion into international markets, while maintaining a strong balance sheet.

Assumptions

Holding — assumption intact At Risk — evidence weakening Broken — assumption invalidated Critical — if broken, thesis fails
#1 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

Consolidated revenue will grow at a CAGR of at least 20% over the next 3-5 years, primarily driven by ~30% annual growth in its US/UK export segments and continued demand for specialized AI, Finance, and Law upskilling.

GROWTH 70% VOLUME 30%
#2 HOLDING 70

The company will maintain its average selling price (ASP) for premium specialized courses (e.g., LawSikho) growing at least 3-4% annually, supported by perceived value and demonstrable career outcomes, thus preserving gross margins.

VOLUME 10% PRICING 90%
#3 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

Addictive Learning Technology will maintain a debt-free balance sheet (Debt/Equity ratio of 0.00) over the next 3-5 years, funding planned CAPEX and potential acquisitions through operating cash flow or equity.

DEBT 100%
#4 HOLDING 70

Planned investments in technology and potential acquisitions will be executed efficiently, with CAPEX not exceeding 10% of annual revenue in any given year, contributing to future scalability and competitive advantage without unduly straining FCF.

CAPEX 70% GROWTH 30%
#5 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

The company will avoid material governance issues or existential threats (fraud, regulatory shutdown, delisting), and student financing will remain stable via NBFC partnerships without disruptive policy changes impacting loan availability.

GOING_CONCERN 100%

Recent Developments

Structural Tactical
GROWTH STRUCTURAL Feb 11, 2026

US-India interim trade deal framework announced, focusing on tariff reductions and reciprocal trade, benefiting services export sectors.

Investor Documents