Investment Thesis

Strong — all assumptions holding Maintaining — minor concerns, thesis intact Weak — key assumptions under pressure Broken — critical assumption invalidated
Status STRONG
Conviction 70 / 100
Time Horizon 3-5 years
Over a 3-5 year horizon, Accelya Solutions India Ltd. will sustain robust revenue growth and stable EBITDA margins due to the ongoing recovery and digitalization of the global air transport industry, amplified by its entrenched market position and technological innovation.

Assumptions

Holding — assumption intact At Risk — evidence weakening Broken — assumption invalidated Critical — if broken, thesis fails
#1 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

Global airline passenger traffic and cargo volumes will grow at a CAGR of at least 8% annually over the next 3-5 years, directly driving Accelya's transaction-based revenue.

GROWTH 60% VOLUME 40%
#2 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

Accelya will maintain average EBITDA margins in the 35-38% range, supported by its SaaS model and effective management of skilled talent acquisition costs.

COGS 60% PRICING 40%
#3 CRITICAL HOLDING 70

Accelya will remain debt-free, with its Debt-to-Equity ratio staying below 0.5x, ensuring significant financial flexibility.

DEBT 100%
#4 HOLDING 70

Accelya's net reported profits will not be significantly eroded by USD/INR and EUR/USD volatility, with the impact of forex fluctuations managed to less than 1% of revenue annually.

COGS 50% PRICING 50%
#5 HOLDING 70

No material customer bankruptcies or significant airline sector-wide operational disruptions occur that would impair Accelya's ability to collect receivables or significantly reduce transaction volumes.

GOING_CONCERN 100%

Investor Documents